Iran Braces For Potential Trump Return, Fearing Increased Strikes, Sanctions

Dubai:

Iran’s management and allies are bracing for what they’d regard as a dreadful end result of the approaching US presidential election: A return to energy of Donald Trump.

Opinion polls counsel the Republican Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris stay locked in an in depth contest. However Iranian leaders and their regional allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen are involved that Trump might effectively triumph on November 5 and this might spell extra bother for them.

Iran’s principal concern is the potential for Trump to empower Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Iran’s nuclear websites, conduct focused assassinations and reimpose his “maximum pressure policy” by heightened sanctions on their oil business, in response to Iranian, Arab and Western officers.

They anticipate that Trump, who was president in 2017-21, will exert utmost stress on Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to collapse by accepting a nuclear containment deal on phrases set by himself and Israel.

This potential change in US management might have far-reaching implications for the Center East stability of energy, and may reshape Iran’s overseas coverage and financial prospects.

Analysts argue that whether or not the following US administration is led by Harris or Trump, Iran will lack the leverage it as soon as held – largely because of Israel’s year-old army marketing campaign geared toward degrading the Islamic Republic’s armed proxies, together with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Nonetheless, Trump’s stance is perceived as extra detrimental to Iran because of his extra computerized assist for Israel, they added.

“Trump will either put very tough conditions on Iran or let Israel carry out targeted strikes on its nuclear facilities. He is fully endorsing a military action against Iran,” Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Analysis Middle think-tank, mentioned.

“It’s Netanyahu’s dream day to have Trump back in the White House,” he instructed Reuters.

POISON CHALICE?

A senior Iranian official who declined to be named instructed Reuters Tehran was “prepared for all scenarios. We have (for decades) consistently found ways to export oil, bypassing harsh US sanctions…, and have strengthened our ties with the rest of the world no matter who was in the White House.”

However one other Iranian official mentioned a Trump victory can be “a nightmare. He will raise pressure on Iran to please Israel…, make sure oil sanctions are fully enforced. If so, (our) establishment will be economically paralysed.”

In an election speech in October, Trump acknowledged his unwillingness to go to struggle with Iran, however mentioned Israel ought to “hit the Iranian nuclear first and worry about the rest later”, in response to Iran’s missile assault on Israel on October 1.

Israel retaliated with airstrikes on Iranian army targets, particularly missile manufacturing websites, on October 26.

Iran’s decisions are restricted going ahead, analysts say.

“The reality is: Trump is going to support Netanyahu and give him the green light to do whatever he wants,” mentioned Hassan Hassan, an creator and researcher on Islamic teams. “Trump is much worse (than Harris) for Iran.”

Hassan famous that Washington has delegated a considerable share of accountability to Israel within the battle with Iran and its proxies, with Israel main the best way. “The US is involved enough in that it’s backing Israel, may be more so than before.

“This time it is simply issues are actually dangerous for Iran. Iran is seen as an issue by each Republicans and Democrats.”

During her campaign, Harris called Iran a “harmful” and “destabilising” force in the Middle East and said the US was committed to Israel’s security. She said the US would work with allies to disrupt Iran’s “aggressive behaviour”.

But Trump’s re-election would be a “poisoned chalice”, for Khamenei, according to two regional officials.

If he were to reinstate stringent sanctions, Khamenei may be forced to negotiate and accept a nuclear pact more favourable to US and Israeli term to preserve theocratic rule in Iran, which is facing growing foreign pressure and has been buffeted by bouts of mass protest at home in recent years.

A US-Saudi defence pact tied to Riyadh’s establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, now in its final negotiating stages, poses a significant challenge to Khamenei too.

This alliance threatens to shift the regional balance of power by creating a more unified front against Iran, impacting its geopolitical standing and strategy in the Middle East.

NEW ARCHITECTURE

Hassan said recent attacks on Iran and its allies have been widely perceived as a significant success for Israel. They offered insights into what a limited strike on Iran might look like, setting a precedent and altering assumptions that military action on Iran would inevitably spark a wider Middle East war.

A senior Arab security official said that Tehran could “now not brandish its affect by its armed proxies” in the wake of Israel’s deadly strikes on Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.

For its own part, Iran has every reason to fear another Trump term.

It was Trump who in 2018 unilaterally pulled the US out of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani, Khamenei’s right-hand man and mastermind of overseas attacks on US and allied interests.

Trump also imposed punitive sanctions targeting Iran’s oil export revenues and international banking transactions, which led to extreme economic hardship and exacerbated public discontent in the Islamic Republic.

He frequently said during his presidential campaign that President Joe Biden’s policy of not rigorously enforcing oil export sanctions has weakened Washington and emboldened Tehran, allowing it to sell oil, accumulate cash and expand its nuclear pursuits and influence through armed militias.

In March, he told Israel’s Hayom newspaper in an interview that Iran could have a nuclear weapon in 35 days and that Israel – which deems Iran’s nuclear activity an existential threat though is widely thought to have the region’s only nuclear arms – was in a “very treacherous and harmful neighbourhood”.

An Arab government adviser noted that Tehran recognises there is a “new structure within the making”, but also that Trump despite his tough rhetoric realises there is no alternative to a deal with Iran given its accelerated uranium enrichment program.

“Trump may intention for a brand new nuclear settlement, he might say I tore up the 2015 settlement as a result of it was incomplete and change it with a long-lasting settlement, touting it to ‘make America nice once more’ and protect US pursuits,” the adviser said.

As the 2015 deal has eroded over the years, Iran has escalated the level of fissile purity in enriched uranium, cutting the time it would need to build an atom bomb if it chose to, though it denies wanting to.

Iran Online, a state-run news website, stated that when Trump left office, Iran was capping enrichment at 3.67 percent under the deal, far below the 90 percent of weapons grade.

Now, Iran has “enriched uranium to 60% with IR-6 superior centrifuges” and could achieve nuclear weapons capability “inside a couple of weeks … Finishing the nuclear deterrence cycle is Iran’s biggest trump card towards Trump,” it said.

Arab and Western officials warn that the more Iran hints it is nearing development of an atom bomb, the more they incite the need for Israel to strike.

“If Trump reassumes energy, he’ll assist Israeli plans to strike Iranian nuclear services,” a Western official mentioned.

(Apart from the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV employees and is printed from a syndicated feed.)