Optimistic or pessimistic? Analyzing the Atlantic Division logjam

The NHL’s Atlantic Division is off to a largely pedestrian begin. Exterior of the Florida Panthers, who prime the division with a 9-3-1 report and have received 5 straight video games, the remainder of the groups have endured some uneven play out of the gate:

• The Toronto Maple Leafs look like trending in a optimistic course, particularly with their energy play lastly beginning to produce, as they adapt to the model new head coach Craig Berube needs the group to play. They may not win the division, however they need to haven’t any points making the playoffs.

• The Tampa Bay Lightning have appeared terrific some nights and borderline disinterested some nights. The Lightning frustrate me at instances, however they’ve the horses (Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Level, Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman) to outscore their warts on any given evening. Jake Guentzel continues to be adjusting to his new group and has one other stage to offer and Andrei Vasilevskiy nonetheless ranks as one in all the prime netminders in the NHL when on prime of his sport. They’re behind Detroit in factors proportion 13 video games into the season, however financial institution on them being effective in the long-run.

• The Montreal Canadiens are nonetheless attempting to determine methods to play with a constant group id. They’ve been using a roller-coaster of outcomes which have result in a 4-7-2 report and the second-worst targets in opposition to common in the league (4.00).

The remainder of the groups in the division are all packed fairly tightly, with numerous causes to both be involved or hopeful of what’s forward. Nonetheless noting it’s early in the season, I’m attempting to conclude if I ought to be optimistic or pessimistic about the future outlook going through the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators and Boston Bruins, who might find yourself wrestling over one playoff spot in the East (or two at most).

• The Sabres proceed to be an inconsistent group that runs ice chilly or lukewarm for lengthy stretches however by no means appears to get sizzling sufficient to both monitor down groups in entrance of them or draw back from groups behind them in the standings.

• Their energy play began the season 1-for-26 and their penalty kill has room for enchancment. Their mixed particular group statistics (PP% plus PK%) provides to 86.6 per cent. They should discover a approach to transfer these numbers over 100 mixed.

• Buffalo could be very younger in aim. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (25) and Devon Levi (22) have been tasked with tending the crease for a group determined to make headway. The 2 netminders have mixed to play a complete of 109 video games and 34 video games respectively, with Luukkonen taking on extra of the starter’s workload. Lots of Buffalo’s outlook depends on stability in the crease. No stress!

• Tage Thompson is again ripping pucks and scoring targets after a little bit of a dip final season (29G-27A). He’s already contributed 8G-7A, leads the group with 44 pictures, and holds the keys to enhancing the outcomes for the Sabres’ energy play. There aren’t too many NHL goalies who can cease Thompson’s one timers from the weak facet flank on the man benefit. He doesn’t have an influence play aim but on eight pictures, although.

• Owen Energy, Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram are main the method defensively for Buffalo. They log the most quantity of ice time and contribute offence — every of them are inside the prime 33 scorers at the place league-wide.

• In the case of how the Sabres rating targets, one in all my issues is the reality they aren’t a group that reveals a willingness to get to the entrance of the internet. They don’t set screens, clear up rebounds, or tip pucks sufficient. In brief, they don’t create sufficient “havoc” round their opponent’s internet.

Stats supplied by NHL EDGE

Pessimistic or Optimistic?

Pessimistic: It feels to me like this can be a group that may tease its fan base every so often with some optimistic outcomes — like this week’s 5-1 win over Ottawa — however they’ve too many inconsistencies of their lineup, they’re very younger in internet and haven’t proven me sufficient “growl” in the arduous areas of the ice.

• The Wings practically made the playoffs final season, dropping out on the remaining wild card spot to the Washington Capitals in the tie-breaker (fewer regulation wins).

• The Wings have one in all the finest energy performs in the NHL. These outcomes on the man benefit can maintain them in shut video games and doubtlessly result in extra victories.

• Nearly as good as Detroit’s energy play is, their penalty-kill has to enhance from 69.4 per cent (twenty eighth in the NHL). They should discover a approach to block extra pictures or get a well timed save when a person quick.

• The Wings’ prime 5 scorers are creating on the energy play, however struggling to maintain pucks out at even energy. They’ve mixed to attain 18G-31A, however are additionally a mixed minus-3. Detroit’s general group aim differential can be minus-3.

• At the moment’s NHL is a monitor meet each evening, and the Purple Wings are one in all the slowest outfits in the whole league. They rank in the backside half of the NHL in each skating metric, together with prime velocity and small space bursts, which could clarify the following chart:

Stats supplied by NHL EDGE

Their excessive hazard scoring chances are high horrendous. They depend on scoring from distance or the perimeter slot greater than most groups. They should discover a approach to hunt pucks round the crease space extra successfully than they’re, and must play faster so that they arrive on the scene first in all three zones.

Pessimistic or Optimistic?

Pessimistic: This group of Purple Wings would possibly get sizzling and discover a approach to experience a robust energy play with their ability gamers, however they should play with extra grit, grizzle, and velocity. The video games get tougher after Christmas, and I’d assume the Wings will probably be trying so as to add the sort of participant who will assist in the areas I’m describing.

• It received’t matter how nice the Senators’ win/loss report is on house ice in the event that they don’t begin to discover methods to financial institution vital factors on the street. They’d an opportunity to place far between themselves and the Sabres on Tuesday evening and ended up on the fallacious facet of a 5-1 loss. As a substitute of waking up 5 factors away from Buffalo, the Senators opened up an early season window for a group beneath them in the standings to climb again in.

• Linus Ullmark has been common to begin the season in Ottawa. Suffice to say they’re banking on him stealing some video games as the season rolls alongside.

• Conversely, Anton Forsberg has been largely stable for the Senators and on stability has supplied what the group ought to count on from its backup netminder.

• Tim Stutzle has been terrific for the Senators. Not solely is he offering offence (6G-11A), he’s taking part in a extra bodily engaged model. Stutzle has been credited with 25 hits and eight blocked pictures in his first 12 video games this season, in comparison with 100 hits and 41 blocked pictures all of final season.

• He flies underneath the radar in comparison with different younger defenders on the Senators’ roster, however veteran Nick Jensen has been a stabilizing affect for Ottawa. He’s averaging over 20 minutes of ice time and being deployed in all key defensive eventualities. Jensen has contributed 5 assists offensively however, extra importantly he leads Ottawa’s defencemen with a plus-8 ranking.

Pessimistic or Optimistic?

Optimistic: Ottawa’s energy play is unbelievable and their penalty-kill isn’t horrific. I’m banking on Ullmark rounding into type and stealing some video games on the street for them. I really feel like Ottawa is taking part in with extra construction as a group general and will chase down a wild card spot. There will probably be some hiccups alongside the method, however they’re shut.

• What to make of the Bruins? They’ve been a powder keg to begin the season. Head coach Jim Montgomery has had some animated interactions with group captain Brad Marchand and not too long ago benched main scorer David Pastrnak for the whole third interval of their sport versus Seattle.

• Boston has been up and down like a yo-yo. Their current five-game stretch included a 2-0 loss to Philadelphia, adopted by an 8-2 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes. The Bruins then rebounded with back-to-back shutout victories over Philadelphia and Seattle earlier than being shutout by Toronto 4-0 on Tuesday evening. Discuss a group that’s troublesome to determine.

• Jeremy Swayman missed all of coaching camp negotiating a brand new contract. In his first 10 video games of the season as the Bruins’ undisputed No. 1 netminder he has posted a 4-5-1 report paired with a 3.14 GAA and .894 save proportion.

• Pastrnak leads the Bruins in scoring with 6G-5A, however he’s minus-5. It’s simple to see why the coach despatched him a message.

The top of David Pastrnak’s final shift earlier than his third interval benching.

• The Bruins are getting unbelievable contribution from their fourth line. Linemates Mark Kastelic (3G-4A, +9) Cole Koepke (3G-4A, +10) and Johnny Beecher (2G-4A, +5) have been the Bruins’ most dependable group to begin the season. Extremely, the line averages solely 12 minutes of ice time per sport and produce these outcomes.

• Lastly, check out how rather more concerned the Bruins are between the hash marks and round the crease in the offensive zone. The puck hasn’t gone in as a lot as they want, however I imagine they are going to finally be rewarded for his or her dedication in the trenches.

Pessimistic or Optimistic?

Optimistic: The legislation of averages ought to take over in time. The Bruins will rating extra and the coach is in the ear of his prime gamers to offer extra dedication defensively. Extra well timed saves from Swayman will assist as nicely.

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