Should we get rid of the Electoral College? Most Americans would support a popular vote system. Switching to one would be tough

Americans are gearing up for yet one more contentious presidential election. And whereas practically 155 million people throughout the United States voted in the 2020 presidential election, all eyes will be on seven key swing states to see whether or not the race ideas to Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump.

Why these seven states? A listing that features Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania? These are the solely true “battleground” states that may seemingly matter in the Electoral College, which determines the winner of the presidential election. Whereas Americans have collectively acquired a heck of a civics lesson lately, a lot of concern and furor surrounds the Electoral College—which isn’t a school in any respect, of course, however moderately a choice course of.

The Electoral College is notable as a result of it isn’t used wherever else in the world and can lead to a candidate profitable the election even when they obtain fewer general votes (which occurred in 2000 and 2016).

On election night time, every state is price a sure quantity of electoral “votes,” and the candidate who will get greater than half—270 electoral votes—wins. Each state gets as many electoral votes because it has members of Congress in each the Home and Senate. For instance, Wyoming receives three electoral votes (two senators and one at-large Home member), whereas California will get 54 (two senators and 52 Home members).

Why do we have an Electoral College?

The Electoral College has its roots in the Structure, and specialists say the framers included it for a few key causes. For starters, “they thought individual voters might not be well enough informed,” says Kermit Roosevelt, David Berger Professor for the Administration of Justice at the College of Pennsylvania Carey Legislation Faculty, whose experience consists of constitutional regulation and battle of legal guidelines.

Moreover, Roosevelt says that the founders thought that with out the Electoral College, states may “feel pressure to expand their franchise,” that means that states may grant the proper to vote to particular populations (corresponding to ladies) and provides themselves higher significance. Roosevelt additionally says slavery was one more reason it was devised.

“Southern states wanted some power for the enslaved population,” which is how we ended up with the “three-fifths compromise” at the time, giving Southern states extra illustration in Congress.

How Americans’ opinions on the Electoral College are shifting

Although we’ve been utilizing the Electoral College for nearly 250 years, it has led to some controversial outcomes in the previous and usually focuses candidates’ consideration on swing states.

“Basically, we’ve come down to a point where America says, ‘Okay, Pennsylvania, we’re stuck, so you pick,’” says Chris Stirewalt, political editor and anchor of The Hill Sunday on NewsNation.

Stirewalt discovered himself in a precarious place due to the Electoral College throughout the 2020 election when he was a political editor at Fox Information. On election night time that 12 months, Stirewalt determined that the community would (appropriately) name Arizona for Democrat Joe Biden—lengthy earlier than rival networks did. That call was met with fury from Fox Information viewers and even his coworkers, and although he was appropriate, is a scenario that would not have materialized if the United States used a popular vote system to select its president.

However Stirewalt says that it’s conditions corresponding to that one which have prompted Americans to dislike the Electoral College system. “Democrats hate it because it has robbed them of victories that they thought were theirs,” he says. Stirewalt notes that it’s a massive motive we see candidates holding curious positions. “Why does Donald Trump want to be the ‘father of IVF’? Why does Kamala Harris love fracking? It’s because of the Electoral College,” he says.

The info exhibits that Americans would support scrapping the system. Recent polling from Pew Research exhibits that, as of September 2024, 63% of Americans would desire to transfer to a popular vote system moderately than the Electoral College. That features roughly 80% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans.

The case for and towards abolishing the Electoral College

The clearest benefit of shifting to a popular vote system, says Roosevelt, is “political equality.” That implies that “A vote in California would be equal to a vote in Wyoming,” and successfully, get rid of swing states, forcing candidates to marketing campaign nationwide. You’d see a lot extra rallies in Seattle, Los Angeles, New York Metropolis, and Boston, as an example, as opposed to Tucson, Scranton, Eau Claire, and Grand Rapids. “A popular vote is the easiest, simplest, and fairest,” he says.

Stirewalt, although, disagrees. “Not only is the Electoral College not what’s wrong with our politics, but it could and should be a part of what fixes it,” he says. “The point of the Constitution is to protect political minorities—if you changed the way that we chose the president, it would have an effect on the electorate, too,” Stirewalt says. He provides that there would be a basic change in candidates’ motivations whereas campaigning, which may change how and the place they marketing campaign.

They’d nonetheless spend nearly all of their time campaigning in massive cities, the place most voters are, which may nonetheless have rural voters feeling forgotten. He notes that one potential answer would be to modify the Electoral College to “the Madison plan,” devised by James Madison, which would allocate electoral votes at the district degree moderately than the state degree. So, whereas California may vote Democratic on a state degree, there are nonetheless hundreds of thousands of Republican votes in the states which can be primarily “locked up.” Below a Madisonian Electoral College repair, these electoral votes may nonetheless be allotted.

“If we want to make changes,” Stirewalt says, “we should do it at the district level.”

Will we ditch the Electoral College?

Whereas there might be some political will to change or transfer on from the Electoral College, it’s unlikely. It would take a constitutional amendment, which would require support from supermajorities in the Home and Senate and the president’s signature. On condition that Congress can barely cross a easy spending invoice, that’s unlikely to occur any time quickly.

If there may be any sensible hope of altering or circumventing the Electoral College, it in all probability lies in the Nationwide Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC), an settlement amongst a number of states to pool and award their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote. If these states’ pooled votes are greater than 270, then, successfully, the popular vote winner would additionally win the Electoral College. Earlier this 12 months, Maine became the 18th state to be part of the Compact, bringing the Compact’s whole to 209 electoral votes.

However Roosevelt says that we don’t truly know if the Compact itself is constitutional. So, it may be struck down by the Supreme Courtroom if it have been tried to be enacted.

As such, we’re seemingly caught with the Electoral College for the foreseeable future. If there’s something we can do to enhance it, says Stirewalt, it’s spending extra time educating Americans on their obligations as voters, and cultivating a higher understanding of why we have techniques like the Electoral College, and the way they perform.

“Being a citizen in a republic is hard work. Self-government is hard,” he says. “If there’s one thing that our schools should be doing it’s equipping people to be more effective citizens.”