Barring a miracle, Collingwood’s ill-fated premiership defence has come to an finish.
It’s a season that’s spluttered from Spherical 0, given false hope briefly, imploded spectacularly, after which tried a near-impossible resuscitation.
Now, with the loss to Sydney, it’s over.
Even when outcomes have been to fall improbably Collingwood’s approach, and present them a finals berth (and it will be a present commensurate with the grossest charity), you would not see them progressing very deep into September.
So we’re left with actuality and judging what Collingwood’s 2024 has amounted to.
Occupied with it, I used to be attempting to measure what Collingwood acquired out of the 12 months, and that prompted an even bigger query: “What do clubs play for?”
Clearly, with golf equipment at totally different ranges of improvement, it varies.
However then I labored out easy classifications that breaks golf equipment’ seasons into 4 totally different classes.
Making the finals/profitable a ultimate
For a membership like Essendon, who’ve been struggling to rebuild and acquire respectability in the shadow of the dietary supplements scandal, their season can be aimed toward making the finals, and attempting to win one.
Gold Coast, then again, who’ve had a wealth of younger expertise waltz by means of their doorways and has typically promised a lot early solely to taper away as seasons have progressed, can be comfortable simply to make finals.
In each these examples, the golf equipment would wish to present the league, the media, followers, and – most significantly – themselves that they’re on the best way to turning into a critical energy, and all of the struggling has been constructing to one thing.
However this isn’t relevant to Collingwood – with the exception of 2021, they’ve performed finals since 2018, with 2023 culminating in a flag.
Simply making the finals was by no means a passable goal, so that they don’t fall into this class.
Successful a flag/rivalry standing
Some golf equipment have gone by means of the finals apprenticeship and are actually primed for flag rivalry.
For some, it’s nearly a determined plea. Take Port Adelaide, for instance. They’ve performed loads of finals, so simply making it now isn’t sufficient. It’s gotten to the purpose that regardless of being reasonably profitable, the dearth of final success has individuals questioning whether or not their incumbent coach ought to stay.
Brisbane’s comparable, if no more superior – they performed in a Grand Closing in 2023, they’ve been rated as a contender, however simply haven’t been capable of win one.
Proper now, that’s the aim for each golf equipment – simply as it will be for Sydney, Carlton, GWS, Geelong, and even the Western Bulldogs. A membership like Fremantle would possibly really feel that proper now, finals expertise is the precedence, whereas a flag tilt can be optimistic.
Collingwood gained the flag in 2023, and though the age profile of their record means that they’re not constructed for extended rivalry, they’d’ve at the least anticipated to be thereabouts in 2024.
And now they’ve missed out on that.
Blooding youth
We see seasons the place golf equipment have turned over their lists, and now they’re pumping video games into youth to provide them as a lot publicity and expertise as doable, so their brainstrust can work out who can be a part of their subsequent premiership assault, and who gained’t be.
Hawthorn’s a very good instance of a membership that’s been taking part in children for the previous couple of seasons. After a sluggish begin to 2024 – a begin that prompt they have been in all probability aimed toward one other lowly end – they’ve clicked and are taking part in scintillating soccer.
North Melbourne’s one other who’s blooding children – though they famously overestimated their standing once they aggressively turned over their record a number of years in the past, which damage their competitiveness, and setback their rebuild. However now they’ve lots of nice expertise, and can get extra in, so absolutely enchancment’s not far.
After all, blooding the youth isn’t all the time the demesne of backside groups. Some golf equipment rebuild on the run, e.g. anyone like Geelong has typically remained in the finals hunt whereas ushering younger children by means of the ranks.
Collingwood did this from 2006 to their 2010 premiership. As stalwarts like Nathan Buckley, Scott Burns, Paul Licuria, Shane Wakelin, James Clement, Anthony Rocca, and many others. have been phased out, coach Mick Malthouse eased in their subsequent technology, uncovered them to the calls for of senior soccer, whereas remaining in the finals. The payoff was the 2010 flag.
However this Collingwood hasn’t actually executed that. Exterior of Nick Daicos, Craig McRae hasn’t thrown the onus onto the children, the best way Mick Malthouse did throughout his time at Collingwood. Gamers reminiscent of Finlay Macrae, Reef McInnes, Joe Richards, and Harvey Harrison have glimpsed senior soccer, however that’s all.
A part of the difficulty has been that guys in the VFL haven’t demanded time in the AFL. However you additionally must surprise in regards to the dealing with of sure gamers who’ve been on the outer, and would possibly’ve provided simply as a lot as incumbents, or probably improved in an AFL system that might complement them.
Macrae is an effective case in level – Collingwood allowed vice-captain Taylor Adams to march to the Swans for little or no, and all of the scuttlebutt was Macrae would take the step as much as substitute him in the midfield. Has he been incapable of seizing his alternative? Doubtlessly. However has he been given a very good shot at it? Dalliances at half-forward and normally the primary to be the sub or be subbed would recommend not.
I additionally have a look at final 12 months the place Jordan de Goey and Steele Sidebottom missed prolonged intervals of soccer, which might’ve appeared the time to place the onus on a subsequent technology participant and inform them that they had four-to-six weeks to make a place their very own.
This 12 months, with Tom Mitchell lacking, Jordan de Goey both struggling with osteitis pubis or out, and Scott Pendlebury lacking a piece of soccer with a bicep damage, absolutely there was a void. As a substitute, Macrae wasn’t afforded that likelihood.
Now this isn’t singularly about Finlay Macrae. He’s an instance that youth hasn’t been uncovered meaningfully. After they’ve been given time, they’ve both been used too recurrently as a sub (e.g. Reef McInnes) or performed out of place (e.g. Macrae getting used as a half-forward).
The truth of all this would possibly merely be that Collingwood’s subsequent tier simply isn’t as much as it, and have both wanted for use sparingly, and/or needed to be shielded from main duty.
One other counter-argument may be that the membership has been aimed toward a flag, so the blokes haven’t been capable of squeeze their approach in, or Craig McRae has determined to go with senior our bodies in entrance of callow youth.
Regardless of the rationalisation, the end result’s the identical: Collingwood’s given restricted time to their future not solely in 2024, however since 2022.
Taking part in for draft picks
As a lot because the AFL tries to disclaim tanking exists, it’s the apparent pathway to rebuilding: transfer out older gamers, expose youthful gamers to AFL for expertise, end low, and get some high quality expertise in.
Clearly, this wasn’t in Collingwood’s priorities, so we’ve to take a look at the flip facet of the equation: typically, for no matter causes, a membership simply has a nasty 12 months or two – accidents, motivation, issues simply don’t fall their approach, so that they end decrease than anyone’s anticipated.
The reward?
An early draft decide.
However not in Collingwood’s case. Due to the deal with Fremantle for Lachie Schultz, they’ve given up a primary rounder that’s now more likely to be a prime ten decide.
So whereas Collingwood probably sees themselves nonetheless in a window of rivalry, they’ve neither the foreign money to draft younger expertise to assist rebuild on the run, nor to commerce for a ready-made participant (of serious high quality) they want.
And let’s get to the wanting it: now that finals are executed, they’re not incentivised to complete as little as doable as a result of there’s no profit in it, which leaves them in a type of purgatory.
Conclusion: Concentrate on the now has Pies’ future in limbo
Each membership would have a major motivation, but in addition a secondary motivation. There’s no motive {that a} crew that’s set for rivalry couldn’t blood their subsequent technology, as Mick Malthouse did so splendidly from 2006 – 2011.
There’s no motive a crew aiming for finals couldn’t shoot for a flag in the event that they discovered they have been extra superior than they anticipated.
Conversely, there’s no motive a crew that’s had a nasty 12 months may not put extra of the onus on their youth, and/and even concede the season and purpose for getting the perfect draft picks doable to rejuvenate their record.
There’s all the time some acquire to be made.
Nevertheless it actually has been such a nothing 12 months for Collingwood, a 12 months the place the membership’s didn’t get happening each entrance, and the place its personal short-sightedness and commerce largesse means there are not any peripheral advantages from having an unlucky season.
Now the straightforward response is that in 2025, with gamers again from damage, and many others, they will bounce straight again up into rivalry.
However that depends on getting old warriors to nonetheless produce and maintain their very own, provided that no one’s actually coming as much as substitute them, the best way guys like Dane Swan, Dale Thomas, and Scott Pendlebury changed Nathan Buckley, Scott Burns, and Paul Licuria in the 2000s, and in addition for the crew to carry their very own towards opposition who can be bettering round them.
No person stands nonetheless in AFL. The whole lot is a continuing state of flux. So this argument exists in a vacuum that Collingwood can return to their 2023 establishment, and no one would’ve improved round them.
It’s not going to occur.
It appears like Collingwood’s been so mounted on the right here and now, it’s come on the expense of gaining some leverage into their future.
It might be attention-grabbing to know the place Collingwood sees itself transferring ahead, and the way they’ll navigate that journey.