What does a Trump presidency mean for the UK and special relationship?

A person holds an American flag depicting president-elect Donald Trump at Parliament Sq. in London in 2020.

Jeff J Mitchell | Getty Photographs Information | Getty Photographs

The U.Ok. holds pricey to its so-called “special relationship” with the U.S., priding itself on a lengthy historical past of shared values and cultural, diplomatic, linguistic and business ties with the States.

London feels these long-standing bonds and geopolitical pursuits make its relationship with the U.S., properly, special.

Whether or not that feeling of exceptionalism and distinctive closeness is recognize or felt as keenly throughout the Atlantic has at all times been a bone of rivalry for London, nevertheless, and the bond between the U.S. and U.Ok. could possibly be examined additional when Donald Trump returns to the White Home following his election win.

In the run-up to the vote, Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer had appeared to strengthen the relationship with Trump, checking in on the Republican chief after an assassination try towards him, and touring to New York with International Secretary David Lammy to dine with him at Trump Tower in September.

Congratulating the president-elect on his decisive win, Starmer posted on X that he appeared ahead to a collaborative partnership with Trump

“As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise,” he commented, including, “From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the U.K.-U.S. special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”

Nonetheless, Starmer might need some groveling to do with a new Trump administration.

Tensions flared final month when Trump’s marketing campaign crew in October accused the Labour Social gathering of “blatant foreign interference” in the presidential election after occasion activists travelled to the U.S. to assist Harris’ marketing campaign. Starmer and the occasion denied the accusations.

U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the White Home in Washington on Sept. 13, 2024.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

There is no doubt that the leaders are lower from totally different cloths — the brash and unpredictable character of businessman-turned-politician Trump is a far cry from the extra measured fashion of the former human rights lawyer who as soon as took on large enterprise in high-profile courtroom instances.

Addressing British lawmakers on Wednesday, Starmer reacted to Trump’s win by reaffirming his dedication to good relations with the U.S., stating “it is absolutely crucial that we have a strong relationship, that strong special relationship forged in difficult circumstances, between the U.S. and the U.K.”

However Kemi Badenoch, the new chief of Britain’s opposition Conservative Social gathering, which is extra ideologically aligned with the Republicans, goaded Starmer over previous criticism of Trump by the present Labour international minister who, in 2018, known as Trump a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath” and a “profound threat to the international order” in a magazine article. Lammy has since stated he would work with Trump and would look to steer the infamously NATO-skeptic Republican to stay in the army alliance.

The UK can lie low

Economists say Britain shouldn’t anticipate any special therapy when a new Trump administration comes into drive, however they notice it is unlikely the U.Ok could be a prime goal for punitive insurance policies, corresponding to import tariffs, that could possibly be levied on the European Union and China as Trump appears to spice up America’s progress and competitiveness.

Trump has already threatened to revive a commerce conflict that started throughout his first time period in workplace, stating in his election marketing campaign that he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods by 60-100%, and would impose a blanket 10% tariff (or potentially 20%) on all U.S. imports, a move opening up a new front in trade tensions with Europe and China. The U.K., now out of the EU, might find its more isolated position an advantage.

“The U.K. is, quite frankly, probably small enough to be off the radar,” Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, told CNBC after Trump’s election win.

“We’re not part of the EU anymore. China and the EU are the big two [that will be targeted by Trump]. We won’t come into any issues around NATO commitments, because we meet our own. Whereas with Europe, Trump could conceivably say, ‘we’ll threaten you with a trade war, but if you increase your military spend and meet your NATO commitments, we’ll not put tariffs on,'” Pickering said, noting that “Trump likes to trade everything off.”

While “Starmer may have offended Trump at some point, or David Lammy might have offended America,” Pickering noted that “these are relatively small potatoes versus Trump’s issues with Europe and NATO or China containment. So I think with a bit of careful diplomacy, the U.K. and the U.S. can get on good terms quickly,” he said.

Not so special anymore

Describing the “special relationship” as one of convenience for the U.S., Pickering said the U.K. could still maneuver itself to be useful to an incoming Trump government.

“The key thing for the U.K. is, can it reassert itself as this mid-Atlantic broker between America and Europe now that it’s outside of the EU? This was always the U.K.’s advantage — to be the English speaking common-law, American partner within the European Union, and by brokering that relationship, that allowed us to punch above our weight diplomatically.”

Whisper it, but the “special relationship” ceased to be special long ago, according to Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg.

“Apart from strong cooperation on intelligence gathering and few military aspects, all recent U.S. administrations have treated the U.K. as a normal mid-size European country,” Schmieding told CNBC Wednesday.

“That Trump and Starmer are apparently not fans of each other, to put it mildly, will not help in future U.S.-U.K. talks. But it is not the decisive factor, largely because for the U.S. will probably not be inclined to give any special treatment to any country in Europe,” he said.

Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II greets U.S. President Donald Trump as he arrives for the Ceremonial Welcome at Buckingham Palace, in London, Britain June 3, 2019.

Victoria Jones | Reuters

Schmieding said it’s advisable for the U.K. to coordinate its response to Trump with its European neighbors, notably on how to react if Trump cuts U.S. military aid to Ukraine, as expected, meaning Europe is on the hook for the funding gap left by Ukraine’s strongest ally since Russia invaded in February 2022.

Although the picture has improved since Trump was last in office, from 2017 to 2021, the president-elect is likely to continue to harangue European members of NATO to increase their defense spending, a perennial bugbear for Trump.

NATO members committed in 2014 to spending 2% of their national gross domestic product on defense however laggards stay, together with Germany, France, Italy, Turkey, Spain and Canada. Even the Netherlands, whose former chief Mark Rutte is now NATO chief, has failed to fulfill the spending pledge.

After being elected to workplace in July, Starmer made a “cast-iron commitment” to boost U.Ok. protection spending to 2.5% of GDP, however has refused to present a timetable for the enhance. Nonetheless, the U.Ok. is in Trump’s good books in relation to protection spend, with its expenditure in the area standing at 2.3% of GDP in 2023, NATO figures show. The U.S. spent 3.2%, making it the second-largest spender after Poland, at 3.9%.

Trump rattled NATO members in February when he stated he wouldn’t present army safety to any member state that had not met its monetary obligations to the bloc, and would even “encourage” adversaries “to do whatever the hell they want” to that nation.