Observing Kashmir’s first Post-Autonomy Elections
India-administered Kashmir is probably the most northern portion of the Indian subcontinent. “Kashmir” derives etymologically from the Sanskrit Kashmira i.e. land desiccated from water. There are various derivations through which Kashmir both means kashyapa-mir (Kashyapa’s Lake) or kashyapa-meru (Kashyapa’s Mountain). It’s scarcely stunning that this etymological confusion belies a a lot deeper historic bifurcation of a contested area. Till the mid-Nineteenth century, the time period “Kashmir” referred solely to the Kashmir Valley however at the moment (geographically) all of recent Kashmir encapsulates the India-administered territories (Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh) the Pakistan territories (Azad Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan) and the Chinese language-held Aksai Chin, Trans-Karakoram Tract. I had the chance throughout 2024 to be a part of a distant election commentary train from Cambridge College, working carefully with the NGO neighborhood in Kashmir’s first post-autonomy elections
The fashionable area of what we loosely name “Kashmir” is a residing conundrum of a post-colonial imbroglio. India calls the territory below Pakistan management, “Pakistan-occupied Kashmir” whereas Pakistan denotes the opposite as “Indian-occupied Kashmir”. In 1987 the Indian administration, frightened of Pakistan, was accused of meddling in Kashmir’s elections to dam pro-independence candidates. In response, a coalition of fashionable events at the moment boycotted the elections. A number of leaders fled to Pakistan, the place they marshalled an armed revolt towards India. It spawned waves of violence and political militancy from the Nineties onwards.
There are huge areas of disputed territory and a few shared territory below Indian and Pakistani management respectively. Neither India nor Pakistan have formally recognised accession by the opposite. Predictably, this made the election all of the extra vital within the minds of events and other people. India occupies the realm “ceded” to China by Pakistan within the Trans-Karakoram Tract in 1963, and Pakistan claims the complete area excluding Aksai Chin and Trans-Karakoram Tract. They’ve gone to struggle on quite a few events. Certainly, the Indo-Pakistani Conflict of 1947 pressured the present boundaries, with Pakistan securing about one-third of Kashmir, and India one-half, with a dividing line set by the UN after the Indo-Pakistan struggle. It’s a territorial and electoral mess. Within the phrases of an election employee with the Election Commission:
The whole territory is a wealthy interweaving of historical past, cultures and politics. You have got a way when you’re placing up polling stations within the native faculties and regional buildings that you’re delving into a very distinctive set of peoples… It’s a journey that really appears a bit like a political accident as a lot as anything, however the fierce regional and ethnic loyalties largely forestall any of the communities from saying that the territory is lower than a pure geography … we’re nearly an accident of historical past … that makes it appear to be we’re lower than the sum of our elements. We handle this electorally. We administer what’s the results of this historical past … It’s the job of the electoral fee to roll out the complete authority of the election administration mandate with out concern or favour. We very not often have any query raised concerning the work of any of our workers, even in probably the most distant or contentious locations.
Within the weeks earlier than the election, bumper voting was extensively anticipated as an anti-Modi protest. It was felt that anti-Modi components would truly advocate voting in potential insult to Modi and to offer the very best alternative to beat him. The elections had been well timed since these had been the first polls for the reason that suspension of statehood 5 years in the past. Widespread state-repression had adopted that termination of the relative political freedom skilled throughout Kashmir. “This election is important because there is utter disillusionment amongst people,” mentioned Iltija Mufti, daughter of former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti, whose social gathering was as soon as in alliance with the BJP. She continued, “We are at a crossroads in our history, people have not felt such deep alienation before. They feel disempowered and dispossessed.” For the Hindu Bhartiya Janata party (BJP), Kashmir had been a central pledge even when it may solely be pressured by anti-terrorism and anti-press legal guidelines. A village chief I spoke to described it thus:
It’s nothing lower than a crossroads in our historical past. Voters within the state see the upcoming polls as a chance to lastly get again their voice, after years of getting their voting rights silenced. The Modi authorities had bitterly resisted holding the polls however he has lastly needed to give in and settle for the authorized judgement mandated by the supreme court docket earlier this yr, with a September deadline. He has held out to the tip and we hate him for that… We hope he will get a punch within the nostril. The BJP declare they might “sweep” the polls however widespread resentment has left them contesting lower than a 3rd of the 90 meeting seats, principally centered in the one Hindu-majority space of Jammu, and they’re anticipated to win fewer than within the 2014 polls.
Regardless of requires boycotts by separatist and terrorist entities, candidates from a large number of events, together with those that favour larger independence for Kashmir, have actively participated within the 2024 election. Modi initially hailed the elections as proof that Kashmiris have given up their aspiration for independence. But, many feared that the Modi authorities was making an attempt to alter the Muslim-majority demography of Kashmir, and so had been anxious to again their very own leaders and end up to vote. So removed from exhibiting deference to Modi’s plans for elections, they had been enjoying him at his personal sport, and mobilising in opposition.
Within the occasion, elections to the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Meeting had been held with out a lot incident between 18 September – 1 October 2024. The polls, as prior to now, had been carried out in 3 phases to elect its 90 seats. The INDIA alliance, made up of the Jammu and Kashmir Nationwide Convention (JKNC), the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Communist Party of India (CPI(M)), gained a majority- some 49 of the 90 seats, with the JKNC gaining the very best quantity. The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) secured by far the most important share of the favored vote. International diplomats had been allowed to look at the election however abroad journalists had been excluded. However, there was relative transparency within the precise conduct of polling. Native journalists reported few accounts of election malpractice and home observers appear to have been comparatively proud of the conduct of the Nationwide Election Fee. JKNC has emerged as the one largest social gathering, successful 42 seats with BJP gaining 29. JKNC’s Chief, Omar Abdullah grew to become chief minister on 16 October. All events can be relieved that election-related violence was restrained, and that the INDIA alliance have stable opposition.
It stays to be seen how post-election politics could play out, particularly as these post-autonomy polls supply no resolution for the geopolitical predicament that’s Kashmir. It stays a territory which is concurrently enclave and exclave, with deep fissures which are seemingly all however inconceivable to resolve.