Vikings Need Bounce Back Win vs. Rams in Short Week
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Back in my NFL exec years, I had a love-hate relationship with Thursday video games. I beloved the mini-bye that adopted to get a weekend off through the lengthy season. And I at all times preferred having our groups on Thursday nationwide TV video games. I didn’t just like the brief week our staff needed to put together for a recreation, and it was worse once we needed to journey, as I felt the Thursday recreation at house was a giant benefit for our opponent.
Vikings Need Bounce Back Win vs. Rams in Short Week
That’s the case this week for the Vikings, who should bounce again from the shut loss to the Lions and journey to Los Angeles for a gathering with the up-and-down Rams. Even at 2-4, they’re a harmful staff, and QB Matthew Stafford may have his favourite goal — Cooper Kupp — again in the lineup after lacking the final 4 video games with an ankle harm.
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The Vikings have to win to maintain tempo with the Lions, who ought to simply deal with Tennessee. The Packers and Bears are additionally in the race, with Inexperienced Bay at 5-2 and Chicago at 4-2.
Listed below are my keys to a Vikings win over the Rams on Thursday evening:
1. Clear up the penalty points, particularly the pre-snap selection, which had been pricey in opposition to the Lions and have hampered the offense to a sure extent all season. Courtesy of the StarTribune’s Mark Craig, he wrote this week that the Vikings have the third-most offensive pre-snap penalties (21), which have contributed to 9 stalled drives.
Conversely, the Rams lead the NFL in fewest penalties (33) whereas the Vikings rank thirteenth with 53.
2. Outrush the Rams: This technique labored the primary 5 video games when the Vikings outrushed their opponents and received, and it nearly labored in opposition to Detroit, which had solely 5 extra dashing yards on Sunday.
This can be a good week to pound it on the bottom in opposition to the Rams’ Thirtieth-ranked run protection. Let Aaron Jones, Ty Chandler, and the offensive line, with assist from C.J. Ham and the tight ends (which can lastly embrace T.J. Hockenson) and vast receivers, run it greater than Sam Darnold passes in opposition to a protection that simply had three interceptions of Gardner Minshew in the 20-15 win over the Raiders.
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Jones regarded good in opposition to the Lions, with 116 mixed yards dashing and receiving. He stated he got here out of the sport feeling nice, so it’s a giant optimistic that his hamstring harm didn’t flare up.
The Rams’ dashing assault led by Kyren Williams ranks twenty sixth, however he does have eight dashing TDs to tie Derrick Henry for the NFL lead. The Vikings’ No. 2 run protection ought to have the ability to shut down Williams and the Rams on the bottom, though it’s a giant concern that main tackler Blake Cashman—who was sorely missed in the Lions recreation in opposition to the run and move—is unlikely to return till Week 9 in opposition to the Colts as a consequence of his turf toe harm.
2. Stress Stafford and pressure turnovers: The Vikings’ protection has 24 sacks (third-ranked), and Stafford has been sacked 17 occasions (tenth most). If the Vikings can cease the run and make the Rams one-dimensional, it helps their probabilities to get to Stafford and pressure a few interceptions or fumbles. Stafford has thrown solely three landing passes with 4 interceptions this season. The Vikings lead the league with 11 picks however didn’t pressure any from the new Jared Goff.
After matching wits with Lions OC Ben Johnson, it’s one other fascinating chess match between Vikings DC Brian Flores and Rams Coach Sean McVay, who calls the performs for the Rams’ offense. Will probably be an thrilling evening for Kevin O’Connell as he has his first matchup as a head coach in opposition to McVay, whom he coached below as Offensive Coordinator of the Rams’ Tremendous Bowl champion staff in 2021.
3. Cowl Kupp: when he’s in the lineup, Stafford usually seems to be his method, and the Vikings defenders need to be higher than they had been in opposition to the Lions’ high WR—Amon-Ra St. Brown (eight catches, 112 yards, one TD when Goff beat the blitz for a 35-yard TD toss).
The Vikings’ corners should be higher than they had been on Sunday, and the Vikings’ greatest nook—Stephon Gilmore—can’t have a second shaky recreation in a row. However the Rams will certainly check Byron Murphy because the weaker hyperlink in the secondary, and the Vikings’ linebackers need to do a greater job on Williams out of the backfield than they did in opposition to the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs (who’s a superior again, however Williams has 14 receptions this season).
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4. Give Darnold time to hit Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor and goal JJ extra. Plus, Darnold should be higher in key moments: The Jets and Lions each had 4 sacks of Darnold. He wants time to search out his receivers and never pressure throws (he now has 5 interceptions this season).
Jefferson should have double-digit targets (he says he’s “definitely sick of 80, 90-yard games” as he has just one 100+ yard recreation this season (vs. San Francisco). He had 10 video games with over 100 receiving yards in 2022 when he was Offensive Participant of the 12 months.
Darnold should make higher selections and be extra correct than he was on the missed two-point conversion and Third-and-4 overthrow of Jefferson late in the Lions recreation. He performed so effectively the primary 4 weeks, struggled in opposition to the Jets’ elite move protection, and was up and down in opposition to Detroit. He must get again to his early stage of play, which was wonderful.
5. Get Hockenson in the lineup: He says he’s 100%, so get him in there to offer Darnold one other wonderful, Professional Bowl-caliber goal. Johnny Mundt didn’t get it carried out in opposition to Detroit, and the Vikings want Hockenson, which can even take some strain off Jefferson and open issues up for J.J./Jets, Addison, and Nailor.
6. Win and even in the turnover battle: That is quite simple, and it’s at all times a key, which the Vikings have carried out in each recreation this season.
7. The superb Will Reichard stays sizzling: Wouldn’t it have been thrilling to see the Vikings’ excellent kicker (30 for 30, together with 4 for 4 from 50+) have a shot from 68 yards to beat the Lions? I feel he would’ve made it, but it surely’s ridiculous that the Vikings couldn’t get lined up proper and had been penalized 5 yards for unlawful formation. It’s simply as unhealthy that Darnold was sacked earlier than he may throw a Hail Mary on the ultimate play.
The Vikings ought to have an edge with Reichard over a fellow sixth-round rookie kicker–Joshua Karty–who has missed two area objectives and two additional factors. Additionally, on particular groups, the Rams have a pair of fine returners—Blake Corum on kickoffs (28.2-yard common) and Xavier Smith on punts (15.8 yards per return). So Reichard must boot his kickoffs too deep to return, as he has carried out a lot of the season, and Ryan Wright wants his punts to be on the sideline or excessive sufficient to pressure honest catches.
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8. Crowd noise shouldn’t be a giant downside at L.A.’s SoFi Stadium, the place many Vikings followers will likely be in the home.
Predicting the end result: The Vikings are the higher staff on offense and protection and may win this recreation in the event that they get better from a bodily and draining recreation with Detroit. The brief week and the journey are points, however I feel the Vikings will likely be decided to get again on the successful monitor, which is important in the tight NFC North race.
I feel the Vikings win 27-17.
Across the NFL Predictions in Week 7:
1. The Bears have the hardest check in Week 8 amongst NFC North groups once they go to Washington to tackle the NFC East-leading Commanders (at 5-2 coming off a 40-7 demolition of lowly Carolina). If Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is out with a rib harm, I feel the Bears will beat backup Marcus Mariota. If Daniels can play successfully, Washington ought to win.
Detroit — at house — will deal with 1-5 Tennessee. The Packers have a doable entice recreation at 2-5 Jacksonville if Jags’ QB Trevor Lawrence has a giant recreation and if the Pack is waiting for subsequent week’s large divisional recreation at Lambeau in opposition to the Lions. However Inexperienced Bay will win this week and enhance to 6-2.
2. The Chiefs ought to keep unbeaten by successful in Las Vegas. 4-2 Philadelphia at 3-4 Cincinnati is an in depth matchup, and I’m choosing Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
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Tampa Bay is reeling from accidents to star receivers Chris Godwin (out for the 12 months with a dislocated ankle) and Mike Evans (doubtless out for a few weeks with a hamstring). Atlanta performed poorly in dropping at house to Seattle on Sunday, however I feel the Falcons will beat the Bucs in this battle of division co-leaders to get the season sweep and a giant leg up in the NFC South.
The Sunday evening recreation options two groups which were battling harm points and are off to shaky begins. It’s 3-3 Dallas at 3-4 San Francisco. The Niners hammered the Cowboys 42-10 final 12 months at house, and I feel it received’t be as straightforward this time, however they’ll get one other win.
The 5-2 Steelers and revived Russell Wilson, together with a stout D, will additional sink the 2-5 Jets and the Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams duo once they meet on Monday evening in Pittsburgh.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was chosen NFL Govt of the 12 months after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based mostly in Minneapolis and does different sports activities consulting and media work together with faculty/company talking. Observe him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl